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Worldwide PC Sales Could Still Grow by Double-Digits
03/26/2008 - By Eric Taub (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
While a further downturn could slow growth of PC sales to single digits, the industry is showing considerable strength across all segments from laptops to desktop replacements.
A new report released Tuesday from Gartner, the market research firm, predicts year-over-year PC sales to grow 10.9 percent worldwide. That’s down from a December forecast of 11.6 percent, and the reduction is due to the worsening world economy. While a further downturn could slow growth to single digits, the industry is showing strength across all segments from laptops to desktop replacements, the company said.
In the U.S., Gartner lowered its 2008 forecast from 5.2 percent unit growth to 4 percent. The decline “will be more concentrated in the professional sector rather than the home,” Gartner research director George Shiffler said. “There is more hope for home replacements. The professional market is more saturated.”
Mr. Shiffler does not think the reduced forecast is much cause for worry. “A lot of people think the sky is falling. No it’s not. We will see a deceleration from last year, but we are not seeing a 2001-like world-wide contraction nor a double-digit decline in the U.S.”
Mr. Shiffler expects “robust” growth in emerging markets with low PC penetration, including parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. China’s PC penetration is just 111 computers per 1,000 people, compared to penetration in the United States of 850 PCs per 1,000 people. Shipments in emerging markets increased by 22 percent in the last quarter of 2007, as economies there strengthened.
Growth will be fueled in part by lower prices. PCs today are 30 percent cheaper than in 2001, Mr. Shiffler said. Thanks to the continued expansion of mobile access, new low-priced mobile notebooks, such as the Asus Eee PC, priced at around $400, should also spur growth.
Mr. Shiffler also expects a new surge of replacement desktop purchases, in the next few years. The last replacement cycle occurred in 2004 to 2005. With a saturated market in the United States, replacements of all types account for 80 percent of sales, but just 60 percent worldwide.
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